Friday 5 August 2016

National house asking prices fall for the first time since April 2016

Source: Unconditional.co.nz - National house asking prices fall for the first time since April 2016

 

Posted: 01 Aug 2016 02:10 PM PDT - slow-down in Auckland demand – significant variations across the country – The national average asking house price fell in July – the first decline in three months – while demand continued to rise.

 

Real-time market statistics released today by realestate.co.nz show that in July, the seasonally adjusted asking price for homes across the country fell by $7,556 (1.3 per cent) when compared to June 2016. The average national asking price in July was $569,971. On the demand side, there was a 10.39 per cent decrease in viewing sessions for Auckland properties on realestate.co.nz when compared with the same time last year and users also dropped by 4.90 per cent. This continuing trend was first referenced in last month's property report and reinforces the possibility that the shine may have gone off the Auckland market. Nationally, demand increased by 14.48 percent when compared with July 2015. Other regions which saw an increase in viewing sessions were Canterbury and Central Lakes/Otago both at 11.40 per cent, Marlborough with 19.03 per cent and Wellington with a very large 22.52 per cent increase.

 

Auckland still continues its upward trajectory, with the July average asking price at a record high of $898,562 (up 1.1% from the previous month). "There have been calls across the nation for measures to rein in house prices, but it may be that the market is actually self-correcting, albeit slightly, with buyers unwilling or unable to meet ever-increasing price rises. "Whether the fall is the start of a trend is still to be determined," she says.

 

National average asking price:

 

April       May      June     July      

$561,283              $570,971             $577,527             $569,971            

 

"In addition to Auckland, the main centres where asking prices continued to increase were Waikato, Wellington and Otago, but in Canterbury it's a different picture where asking prices fell for the third month in a row in July," Taylor says. The July asking price in Canterbury stood at $462,936, almost $10,000 lower than in May this year ($472,274) but demand is still high. An 8.33 per cent increase in sessions from June and 11.40 per cent increase on July 2015. There have also been some highs and lows in the regions, with Central Lakes/Otago asking prices falling 20.9 per cent compared with the previous month. While this could be a one-off (dropping to $680,672) it's still significantly lower than the same time last year ($756,063 in July 2015), comments Vanessa.

 

At the two ends of the country, asking prices have also fallen.  In July the Northland average asking price stood at $480,006, a 4.7 per cent fall from June (down from $503,527). Southland also recorded a 4.7 per cent fall, with the average asking price in July standing at $250,041, down from $262,285 in June. By contrast, Nelson and Marlborough are on the up, with Marlborough the star performer. Average asking prices in the lifestyle region of Marlborough hit the half-million-dollar mark for the first time ever ($503,997). The figures show that Marlborough had a large increase in demand in July, a month on month increase of 10.94 per cent with a large 19.03% increase on July 2015.

 

Property listings static. The variances across the country are also reflected in the number of new properties coming onto the market, which have remained relatively static nationally compared to the same time last year (down 0.6 per cent from July 2015). For example, regionally we see new listings down by 18.9 per cent in Wairapapa on the same time last year, while at the other extreme Central North Island was up by 35.5 per cent.

 

Rental yield mirror bigger picture - On 27 June, the Reserve Bank released official statistics for the first time showing that in May 2016 some 40 per cent of all mortgage lending was on interest-only payment terms.  This percentage has been "fairly stable" since the data was first available to the Reserve Bank in July 2015. "It reinforces what we said in last month's property report where we stated that many investors appear to be looking for capital gain, rather than focused on rental yield," says Vanessa Taylor.

 

For example, in Auckland where asking prices continue to rise, investors theoretically would receive 3.28 per cent yield over a 12-month period – based on our calculation of average asking price vs weekly rental price, excluding all external costs. Waikato, Auckland and Wellington respectively take up the bottom three spots below the national average, while regional areas dominate the higher returns. West Coast (8.44 per cent), Wairarapa (6.01 percent) and Southland (5.93 per cent) fill the top three spots across the nation.

 

About realestate.co.nz - Realestate.co.nz is dedicated to property and is the official website of the New Zealand real estate industry. As a property listing site, the information it draws on for its property report is in real time. Realestate.co.nz has the country's most comprehensive selection of real estate listings online. The site presents more than 97 per cent of all residential, commercial and rural properties currently marketed by real estate professionals. Focussed exclusively on people in need of property, realestate.co.nz offers superior functionality, including accurate search, school zone data and a mobile app.

 

Glossary of terms - Realestate.co.nz provides valuable property market data not available from other sources.

 

Average asking price gives an indication of current market sentiment. Statistically, asking prices tend to correlate closely with the sales prices recorded in future months when those properties are sold. As it looks at different data, average asking prices may differ from recorded sales data released at the same time.

Inventory is a measure of how long it would take, theoretically, to sell the current stock at current average rates of sale if no new properties were to be listed for sale. It provides a measure of the rate of turnover in the market.

New listings are a record of all the new listings on realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. As we reflect 97 per cent of all properties listed through registered estate agents in New Zealand, this gives a representative view of the market.

Seasonal adjustment is a method we use to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in New Zealand. This is done using methodology from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

Truncated mean is the method we use to provide statistically relevant asking prices. The top and bottom 10 per cent of listings in each area are removed before the average is calculated, to prevent exceptional listings from providing false impressions. Read more here http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/nz-property-report-a-changed-measure-for-asking-price-introducing-truncated-mean/> .

Wednesday 3 August 2016

National house asking prices fall for the first time since April 2016

 

Source: Unconditional.co.nz


National house asking prices fall for the first time since April 2016

Posted: 01 Aug 2016 02:10 PM PDT

§ slow-down in Auckland demand –

§ significant variations across the country 

The national average asking house price fell in July – the first decline in three months – while demand continued to rise. Real-time market statistics released today by realestate.co.nz show that in July, the seasonally adjusted asking price for homes across the country fell by $7,556 (1.3 per cent) when compared to June 2016. The average national asking price in July was $569,971. On the demand side, there was a 10.39 per cent decrease in viewing sessions for Auckland properties on realestate.co.nz when compared with the same time last year and users also dropped by 4.90 per cent. This continuing trend was first referenced in last month's property report and reinforces the possibility that the shine may have gone off the Auckland market. Nationally, demand increased by 14.48 percent when compared with July 2015. Other regions which saw an increase in viewing sessions were Canterbury and Central Lakes/Otago both at 11.40 per cent, Marlborough with 19.03 per cent and Wellington with a very large 22.52 per cent increase.

Asking prices vary across the regions

'Significant variations in asking prices across the country paint an interesting picture', says Vanessa. Auckland still continues its upward trajectory, with the July average asking price at a record high of $898,562 (up 1.1% from the previous month). "There have been calls across the nation for measures to rein in house prices, but it may be that the market is actually self-correcting, albeit slightly, with buyers unwilling or unable to meet ever-increasing price rises. "Whether the fall is the start of a trend is still to be determined," she says.

National average asking price:

April

May

June

July

$561,283

$570,971

$577,527

$569,971

 "In addition to Auckland, the main centres where asking prices continued to increase were Waikato, Wellington and Otago, but in Canterbury it's a different picture where asking prices fell for the third month in a row in July," Taylor says. The July asking price in Canterbury stood at $462,936, almost $10,000 lower than in May this year ($472,274) but demand is still high. An 8.33 per cent increase in sessions from June and 11.40 per cent increase on July 2015. There have also been some highs and lows in the regions, with Central Lakes/Otago asking prices falling 20.9 per cent compared with the previous month. While this could be a one-off (dropping to $680,672) it's still significantly lower than the same time last year ($756,063 in July 2015), comments Vanessa. At the two ends of the country, asking prices have also fallen.  In July the Northland average asking price stood at $480,006, a 4.7 per cent fall from June (down from $503,527). Southland also recorded a 4.7 per cent fall, with the average asking price in July standing at $250,041, down from $262,285 in June. By contrast, Nelson and Marlborough are on the up, with Marlborough the star performer. Average asking prices in the lifestyle region of Marlborough hit the half-million-dollar mark for the first time ever ($503,997). The figures show that Marlborough had a large increase in demand in July, a month on month increase of 10.94 per cent with a large 19.03% increase on July 2015.  

Property listings static - The variances across the country are also reflected in the number of new properties coming onto the market, which have remained relatively static nationally compared to the same time last year (down 0.6 per cent from July 2015). For example, regionally we see new listings down by 18.9 per cent in Wairapapa on the same time last year, while at the other extreme Central North Island was up by 35.5 per cent.

Rental yield mirror bigger picture

On 27 June, the Reserve Bank released official statistics for the first time showing that in May 2016 some 40 per cent of all mortgage lending was on interest-only payment terms.  This percentage has been "fairly stable" since the data was first available to the Reserve Bank in July 2015. "It reinforces what we said in last month's property report where we stated that many investors appear to be looking for capital gain, rather than focused on rental yield," says Vanessa Taylor. For example, in Auckland where asking prices continue to rise, investors theoretically would receive 3.28 per cent yield over a 12-month period – based on our calculation of average asking price vs weekly rental price, excluding all external costs. Waikato, Auckland and Wellington respectively take up the bottom three spots below the national average, while regional areas dominate the higher returns. West Coast (8.44 per cent), Wairarapa (6.01 percent) and Southland (5.93 per cent) fill the top three spots across the nation.

Areas to invest JULY 2016

About realestate.co.nz - Realestate.co.nz is dedicated to property and is the official website of the New Zealand real estate industry. As a property listing site, the information it draws on for its property report is in real time. Realestate.co.nz has the country's most comprehensive selection of real estate listings online. The site presents more than 97 per cent of all residential, commercial and rural properties currently marketed by real estate professionals. Focussed exclusively on people in need of property, realestate.co.nz offers superior functionality, including accurate search, school zone data and a mobile app.

 Glossary of terms

Realestate.co.nz provides valuable property market data not available from other sources.

§ Average asking price gives an indication of current market sentiment. Statistically, asking prices tend to correlate closely with the sales prices recorded in future months when those properties are sold. As it looks at different data, average asking prices may differ from recorded sales data released at the same time.

§ Inventory is a measure of how long it would take, theoretically, to sell the current stock at current average rates of sale if no new properties were to be listed for sale. It provides a measure of the rate of turnover in the market.

§ New listings are a record of all the new listings on realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. As we reflect 97 per cent of all properties listed through registered estate agents in New Zealand, this gives a representative view of the market.

§ Seasonal adjustment is a method we use to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in New Zealand. This is done using methodology from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

§ Truncated mean is the method we use to provide statistically relevant asking prices. The top and bottom 10 per cent of listings in each area are removed before the average is calculated, to prevent exceptional listings from providing false impressions. Read more here.

 

 

Has the shine gone off the Auckland property market?

 

Source - Unconditional.co.nz


Has the shine gone off the Auckland property market?

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 05:15 PM PDT

– Far North the new hot spot for buyers, Otago the new #1 for rental returns –

 Interest in the Auckland property market has dropped on the back of ever increasing house prices and falling returns for investors. Auckland average asking prices rose again to another all-time high in June to $888,493, but searches on realestate.co.nz for properties in the city has fallen, says CEO Brendon Skipper. "It could be a turning point for Auckland, with prices now at an all-time high they're almost out of reach for the average income earner, with first home buyers the hardest hit," he says. During June, the number of users searching Auckland houses 'for sale' on realestate.co.nz fell by 19.33 per cent compared to the same time last year. The site also measures engagement and in June it fell by more than a third across the Auckland region when compared to June 2015.

"Nationally, the volume of traffic to our site is comparable across the country for this time of year, but it appears buyers are moving away from looking in the Auckland area in favour of other regions," comments Brendon.

Property asking price for June 2016

Northland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Queenstown flavours of the month

Searches for properties in Northland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Queenstown were up significantly in June compared to the same period last year. "It appears Aucklanders still want to stay in relatively close proximity to our biggest city, but in terms of affordability they are forced to move even further afield, or they are making lifestyle changes," he observes. Hot spots in Northland are Waipu, Whangarei Heads, Paihia and Tutukaka which all have a significant increase in users looking in those areas. "Whangarei Heads is the suburb to watch, with online engagement up by 42 per cent on same time last year," notes Brendon. In the Far North, Kerikeri Surrounds, Paihia and the Karikari Peninsula were the most searched. Further south, Hamilton and Tauranga continues to attract high levels of online engagement and Queenstown continues to be a perennial favourite," says Brendon.

NZ inventory of listings for June 2016 

Theoretical yield for new Auckland property investors takes a dive

 Auckland property investors are taking a hit on their theoretical yield in the rental market. "Investors buying a house in June at the average price of $888,493 theoretically would receive 3.18 per cent yield on the average rent in Auckland – based on our calculation of average asking price vs weekly rental price, excluding all external costs,' explains Brendon. "This puts them at the bottom of the ladder across all 19 regions." See chart below. "It suggests that Auckland investors are relying on future capital gains rather than rental returns or having to look at other property types when considering their investments" Nationally, the average theoretical yield on a property is 3.96 per cent (based on the average price and rented out at the average asking rental price). By comparison, the star performer in terms of theoretical yield on investment property is Otago, showing an average yield of 7.32 per cent.

Areas To Invest In A Rental Based On June 2016

National picture shows that sellers are back in the market

Across the nation, sellers are coming back in the market with 15 out of the 19 regions showing an increase in new listings compared to the same time last year. "This is significant, as June is traditionally a quiet time of the year, on a par with December and January" explains Brendon. "The message seems to be getting through that with the shortage of listings and the speed in which properties are selling. It's a sellers' market. "While there is still a shortage of listings this is a positive sign for getting more equilibrium in the marketplace," he says.

New property listings for June 2016

 

About Realestate.co.nz - Realestate.co.nz is dedicated to property and is the official website of the New Zealand real estate industry. As a property listing site the information it draws on for its property report is in real time. Realestate.co.nz has the country's most comprehensive selection of real estate listings online. The site presents more than 97% of all residential, commercial and rural properties currently marketed by real estate professionals. Focussed exclusively on people in need of property, Realestate.co.nz offers superior functionality, including accurate search, school zone data and a mobile app.

 Glossary of terms - Realestate.co.nz provides valuable property market data not available from other sources.

§ Average asking price gives an indication of current market sentiment. Statistically, asking prices tend to correlate closely with the sales prices recorded in future months when those properties are sold. As it looks at different data, average asking prices may differ from recorded sales data released at the same time.

§ Inventory is a measure of how long it would take, theoretically, to sell the current stock at current average rates of sale if no new properties were to be listed for sale. It provides a measure of the rate of turnover in the market.

§ New listings are a record of all the new listings on Realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. As we reflect 97% of all properties listed through registered estate agents in New Zealand, this gives a representative view of the market.

§ Seasonal adjustment is a method we use to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in New Zealand. This is done using methodology from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

§ Truncated mean is the method we use to provide statistically relevant asking prices. The top and bottom 10% of listings in each area are removed before the average is calculated, to prevent exceptional listings from providing false impressions. Read more here.

 

 

Scarcity of houses for sale nationally creates sellers’ market

Source: Unconditional.co.nz


Scarcity of houses for sale nationally creates sellers' market

Posted: 31 May 2016 01:32 PM PDT

Realestate.co.nz statistics show demand and prices up, supply down

Download the full report here.

The average asking price for a New Zealand house hit an all-time high with stock at an all-time low for May 2016, in a market which is heavily favouring sellers. Real-time market statistics released today by Realestate.co.nz show the May national average asking price reached $570,971, up 7.2 per cent from the same time the previous year. On the supply side in May, the number of new properties that came onto the market nationally dropped 7.1 per cent from the previous month and the long term average has also fallen. "In this environment, if no new listings were to come onto the market nationally and all the existing properties sold, theoretically there would be no properties for sale in New Zealand within 12 weeks," says Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Taylor. "It's a classic supply and demand situation and right now it's definitely a sellers' market," she says. Heightened real estate activity has been evident across both the North and South Islands. The Central Otago/Lakes region and Nelson in the South Island are notable stand-outs, with Wellington, Waikato and Auckland in the North Island continuing to feature strongly.

Property Asking Price for May 2016

SOUTH ISLAND REGIONS ON THE UP

In May, the Central Otago/Lakes topped New Zealand in terms of percentage average asking price at 17.2 per cent, the region also recorded the largest drop in new property listings down 32.9 per cent, both compared with the same time last year. The average asking price for Central Otago/Lakes region for May hit $819,778. Traffic data reveals a sharp increase in users residing in the neighbouring Otago region viewing property in Central Otago/Lakes, with engagement up by 75.98 per cent on the same time last year. At the other end of the South Island, it's a similar story for Nelson, which recorded a record high asking price of $510,709 and a significant drop in new property listings (down 30.9 per cent on the same time the previous year).

New Property Listings for May 2016

NORTH ISLAND DOMINATED BY MAJOR CITIES

 In April, Realestate.co.nz reported an all-time low in the number of properties for sale in Wellington. In May, inventory levels dropped even further in the capital city. Theoretically, if no new listings were to be posted to the site and the existing properties sold, there would be no properties for sale in just 5.1 weeks (compared with 5.6 weeks in April 2016). "Waikato also has an interesting profile," says Vanessa Taylor. "Asking prices are up a healthy 6.1 per cent on the previous month, coming closely behind Nelson and Central Otago/Lakes in terms of percentage increases across the country," she says. "At the same time new listings remain relatively static in the Waikato region. "We could be tempted to make an assumption that Aucklanders are looking further south to the Waikato. However data shows us that we have seen a strong (75.35 per cent) increase in users from the Bay of Plenty looking at the region. In saying that, the strongest interest is actually coming from users who already reside within the Waikato region," she says. "Drilling further down into the data, the hot spots in the Waikato region that are most searched are Cambridge, Te Awamutu and Morrinsville. Surprisingly, data suggests that Melville could be an up and comer with a 217.59% per cent increase in online engagement." The average asking price in the Waikato is $467,717 compared to Auckland where it stands at $879,730. Auckland is also suffering a fall in inventory levels, with listings down 9.2 per cent on the same time last year (May 2015). "A fall of close to 10 per cent in listings in one year in a city the size of Auckland is very significant," says Vanessa Taylor. "At the same time Auckland asking prices have risen in the past month by 2.1 per cent (compared with April 2016) albeit off a high value base," she says. Auckland asking house prices have risen 10.9 per cent compared to the same time last year (May 2015).

 

Refer infographics –

§ New Property Listings for May 2016, compared to May 2015 (all regions)

§ Property asking price for May 2016, compared to prior month (all regions)

§ NZ Inventory of listings for May 2016 / long term average (all regions)

NZ Inventory of Listings for May 2016

 

About Realestate.co.nz - Realestate.co.nz is dedicated to property and is the official website of the New Zealand real estate industry. As a property listing site the information it draws on for its property report is in real time. Realestate.co.nz has the country's most comprehensive selection of real estate listings online. The site presents more than 97% of all residential, commercial and rural properties currently marketed by real estate professionals. Focussed exclusively on people in need of property, Realestate.co.nz offers superior functionality, including accurate search, school zone data and a mobile app.

 Glossary of terms

Realestate.co.nz provides valuable property market data not available from other sources.

§ Average asking price gives an indication of current market sentiment. Statistically, asking prices tend to correlate closely with the sales prices recorded in future months when those properties are sold. As it looks at different data, average asking prices may differ from recorded sales data released at the same time.

§ Inventory is a measure of how long it would take, theoretically, to sell the current stock at current average rates of sale if no new properties were to be listed for sale. It provides a measure of the rate of turnover in the market.

§ New listings are a record of all the new listings on Realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. As we reflect 97% of all properties listed through registered estate agents in New Zealand, this gives a representative view of the market.

§ Seasonal adjustment is a method we use to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in New Zealand. This is done using methodology from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

§ Truncated mean is the method we use to provide statistically relevant asking prices. The top and bottom 10% of listings in each area are removed before the average is calculated, to prevent exceptional listings from providing false impressions. Read more here.

 

 

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